I love being a software developer.

But, I have concerns about the future of software development as a career.

Four reasons:

1. AI is radically increasing per developer output, and rapidly growing in capability and speed. Studies have shown AI results in 35-45% faster development, and 20-30% faster refactoring. This is with current tools. These numbers will only rise.

2. Developer efficiency continues to accelerate as languages, frameworks, and libraries mature. SaaS and PaaS offerings offer increasingly effective shortcuts to solutions too.

3. The developer shortage problem is finally being addressed. We’ve seen massive layoffs: over 240k tech layoffs in 2023 and over 100k tech jobs laid off in 2024 so far. And we’re finally seeing sufficient software dev related graduates too. At conferences, most head hunters aren’t sponsoring anymore - they already have too many candidates for too few roles. Every conference I attend is below their historical highs, and most are barely staying afloat financially due to lack of sponsors and low attendance.

4. Software has already eaten a huge amount of the world, so there are fewer problems left to solve. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, computer programmer employment is projected to decline 11% from 2022 to 2032. Given the facts above, this number seems low.

Am I being too pessimistic? Are you concerned too?

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